India and the US remain in talks on a bilateral trade deal, with officials hopeful of a framework agreement by year-end, even as the outcome hinges partly on fresh Section 301 tariff probes into India’s competitors.

It is an unusual dynamic: India’s own tariff outcome depends less on what India itself negotiates directly and more on whether the US opens separate investigations into countries that compete with India in similar export categories.

That dependency exists because tariffs work in relative terms for exporters. If India’s competitors face higher tariffs from fresh Section 301 probes, India’s own goods become comparatively more competitive in the US market, even without any change to India’s own tariff rate.

This also explains why bilateral trade talks alone cannot fully resolve the tariff question: the relevant variable is not just what India and the US agree to, but decisions the US makes separately about a wider set of trading partners.

For businesses waiting on clarity, this layered structure, direct negotiations plus indirect exposure to decisions about other countries, means a ‘framework deal’ announcement this year would still leave real uncertainty about India’s final effective tariff rate.

A full trade deal may depend on the US opening fresh Section 301 probes into India’s competitor countries, which would help restore a tariff margin India has lost.

US officials visited India on September 16 for talks.

Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal led an Indian delegation to the US for trade talks on September 22.

Commerce Secretary Rajesh Agrawal has said India is hopeful of reaching a framework trade deal with the US this year.

Officials have said a framework deal would aim to address tariff issues to the benefit of Indian exporters.

Bilateral trade talks between India and the US have continued across multiple rounds through 2026.

Trade negotiations of this scale typically involve discussions across multiple sectors, including agriculture, technology and manufacturing.

India-US engagement (representative image), Wikimedia Commons, GODL-India