The IMD has forecast very heavy rainfall in sub-Himalayan West Bengal and Sikkim, heavy rain in Bihar, Odisha and (later) Chhattisgarh, and thunderstorms in Himachal Pradesh, Jammu and Kashmir, and Punjab, all through September 23, even as it describes the southwest monsoon as entering its withdrawal phase.
That phrase, ‘withdrawal phase,’ is worth unpacking, because it’s easy to misread as ‘the rain is ending.’ In practice, monsoon withdrawal is a slow, uneven retreat that starts in the northwest and takes weeks to fully clear the country, and active, even severe, rainfall can continue in the eastern and southern regions well into the process.
That’s exactly the pattern in this forecast: the northwest is where withdrawal typically begins first, while West Bengal, Sikkim, Bihar and Odisha — all further east — are the ones facing the heaviest rain in this bulletin.
The practical implication is that ‘monsoon withdrawal has begun’ headlines can create a false sense that the season’s risks are behind us, when in fact the specific week described here still carries very heavy rainfall warnings and gusty winds up to 60 kmph in several states.
For anyone using seasonal forecasts to plan travel, agriculture or infrastructure work, the more useful signal is the regional, week-by-week bulletin rather than the broader seasonal label — the label describes an average national trend, while the bulletin describes what’s actually about to happen where you are.
The IMD’s bulletin covers the period from September 17 to 23, describing active weather conditions across multiple zones as the southwest monsoon enters its withdrawal phase.
The monsoon’s withdrawal is expected to begin from parts of northwest India in the coming days, even as active rainfall continues in the eastern and southern regions.
Isolated heavy rainfall was recorded over East Rajasthan on September 17-18, alongside the wider spell of rain affecting northern and eastern states.
Monsoon clouds over a city (representative image), Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 4.0